No surprise in the result. Alinghi 1, New Zealand 0

However, I think there was a bit of a surprise for everyone in the way the Swiss achieved this victory and the strengths demonstrated.

The conditions were 13 knots of wind, with a moderate to large sea. Alinghi was a bit faster upwind, but not by much. By contrast, they were very fast downwind.

This is very telling to me. It means that SUI 100 is more all around than most people thought. Less dominant upwind, less dominant in strong wind but not as weak in light wind. So rather than a crossover…a condition in which we could find Team New Zealand being faster, we may see the Swiss boat just a touch faster in all conditions. This is still a guess, but it is my impression.

The Kiwis made no mistakes. In fact, they had a slightly better start, they had the right side of the course which I would have picked, and for the first five minutes the Kiwis gained. Slowly the Swiss came back, party due to their speed and partly due to a slight left shift. At the first cross, 15 minutes after the start, and off to the right side of the course, Alinghi held a 20 meter advantage that they used to push the Kiwis toward the layline. It seemed that Alinghi gained slightly on each of the eight tacks that ensued.

Near the top of the first windward leg, Alinghi actually made a slight mistake in not tacking right on top of TNZ and allowed them to save the two extra tacks that a trailing boat is usually obliged to make. This made the first run a bit closer than it would have otherwise been.

It was on the runs, the downwind legs, that Alinghi impressed me the most. The Swiss gained 7 seconds on the first run and 21 seconds on the final run to the finish. This is the part of today that really surprised me and is most telling.

Neither team made any mistakes in their crew work or sail selection. These are pros at the top of their game. One thing that needs to be said is that Alinghi created a fair amount of in-house competition to get their crew work to a very high level, without having 30+ official races as Team New Zealand did.

Tomorrow for Race 2, we should have a seabreeze, possibly a bit lighter and with less seaway than today. Let’s see if this changes the relative performance of the boats.

Team New Zealand Wins! In two weeks, it will be a re-match of the America’s Cup 2003.

Luna Rossa put up a new mainsail and made a change to the appendage package last night. Their boat was faster, but not fast enough. They were beaten by a better boat, and a better team. The Italians fought hard and all the way to the end.

Now, New Zealand will come up against its nemesis of 2003, Alinghi!

It should be a great final. Both teams have a large contingent of Kiwis. This small country has produced a huge amount of sailing talent which has found its way to the heart of many America’s Cup teams.

A beautiful prizegiving immediately followed today’s racing, in the America’s Cup harbor here in Valencia. A few beers and bottles of Moet Chandon will be consumed by all tonight.

Now I am going on a vacation in Italy for two weeks. I will resume my updates on June 23 with the first race for the America’s Cup.

More of the same. That’s good news for the Kiwis and bad news for Luna Rossa and the Italians.

Kiwis lead 3-0. Today was “hump day” for them.

Jesse James Spithill appeared today for the first four minutes of the prestart today. With the advantage of the right at the 5 minute gun and 8 knots of wind, he managed to keep Dean Barker off to the left, blocked from maneuvering. Then with 1 minute to go and his opponent trapped above the line, he mysteriously gybed away and went for the left end of the line. It was very hard for us spectators to understand this final minute of the prestart. In fact, Team New Zealand said after the race that they thought they were done for and suddenly found themselves getting the start they wanted at the right side of the line, albeit a bit slow. Pretty good considering they should have been shut out if not forced to take the left.

At the start, Luna Rossa was in fact going 10 knots and Team New Zealand was going 6. I fully expected to see Luna Rossa taking advantage of this small lead and tacking to take the right at that instant. But they opted to stay on starboard and a long straight line ensued. After 3 minutes, it was already too late for Luna Rossa to tack and cross. The lead was gone and TNZ was ahead and to the right. It only got better for TNZ from there. Race over.

I don’t want to minimize the fact that Team New Zealand is sailing very well. Terry Hutchinson is doing a masterful job. He keeps the clamps on Luna Rossa constantly, only splitting the necessary amount downwind to keep his air clear. Upwind his matches Luna Rossa’s every move and leaves no hope, no daylight, for Luna Rossa. The boat is fast and the crew has been perfect in every maneuver.

Then there is the speed part. It looks to me like Team New Zealand is a bit fast than Luna Rossa. I would say the advantage was more pronounced today in the 8 to 10 knots range. For me, this is 25% of the problem with 75% of the problem being the starts and getting the correct side of the course. Certainly the races are winnable for Luna Rossa. The start and the correct side are worth that much here in Valencia.

Another thing I noticed yesterday is that Team New Zealand heels 3 degrees more than Luna Rossa. A boat carries a certain amount of heel (power in the sail plan) if it can. The fact that TNZ can carry 3 degrees more heel without having helm problems tells me that the center of effort of the sail plan is more forward relative to the keel. This would help in accelerating after tacking as well. To make more power, you make your sails differently, maybe a bit fuller. You are able to keep the traveler up longer and therefore the boats just heels more which is ok because they are balanced for that.

Anyway these are just my suppositions from inside a box (TV studio) watching TV monitors. The guys on each team know the real story. Hopefully, for Luna Rossa, they have analyzed things and can make a few adjustments both tactically and performance wise. Otherwise this may be a very short series.

I think we are going to witness a great Louis Vuitton Final. I expect the series between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand will go 8 or 9 races. I expect the two boats to perform fairly evenly. It will be a battle of nerves and pressure. Team unity and strength will play a role in races 7-9. It will be great for the spectators and especially the fans of these two America’s Cup living nations. This will be a rematch of the 1992 Final when Il Moro came back from 4-1 down to win!

If Italy is second to any country in terms of per capita interest in the America’s Cup it is only New Zealand. However, as New Zealand is such a small country, Italy certainly has the highest number of sailing fans in absolute number.

If the boats are even, I think James Spithill, the young Australian helmsman of Luna Rossa, may make the difference. He dominated Chris Dickson in the semi finals. I don’t expect Dean Barker to be as easy to dominate but none the less, “Jesse” James Spithill is the best starting helmsman left in the Cup, and that includes the Alinghi helmsmen.

The crews are both solid. We come to expect that from Kiwi teams but this Luna Rossa team is very solid…different to their previous teams. They look cool under pressure, something that both teams will feel a lot of through out the next 10 days.

The after guards; Luna Rossa sails a bit freer, always with an eye out for more wind or a better shift. Team New Zealand will race tighter, very closely matching their opponent. Even if behind, I doubt Team New Zealand will make a large split. They will look to keep the racing tight and put the leader under pressure. If ahead, they will be happy to win by one meter.

Winning by one meter may be required. Often in close series, it is the team that wins the close ones, that prevails. In 1992, with Il Moro di Venezia, we won two races in the Louis Vuitton Finals against New Zealand, by 1 second. Getting the leader trapped on the lay line to the finish, then slowing the race down by sailing off target angles while working on taking their wind, and then timing the final acceleration to the finish line is how those races are won by the boat behind. Taking those races away on the finish line can be a crushing mental blow. On the last run of race two, of this year’s semifinal between Luna Rossa and BMW Oracle, Luna had BMW trapped but made a mistake and sailed too low which allowed BMW to luff and get their apparent wind forward and sail free to the finish. I am sure that experience will prove useful in this Final.

So for us spectators, it is time to prepare for a visual feast of action, drama and emotion. For the sailors on each team, this is must win territory. Both teams have been in the Cup before. Neither will be satisfied with ending their campaign here. It is all on!

Desafio fell today but not before a valiant effort. The first Spanish team to make the semi finals of the Louis Vuitton Cup went to the 7th race, further than the almighty BMW Oracle Racing.

Dean Barker got a great start today against Karol Jablonski and the Kiwis were on their way. In reality, both helmsman made some mistakes in the prestart and I am sure that made James Spithill, helmsman of Luna Rossa, smile a bit.

18 knots of wind and 4 foot waves were the order of the day. The Spanish were taking on a lot of water on the first windward leg and in a scene very similar to the Kiwis in the first race of the Americas Cup 2003, the Spanish were bucketing to get water out of the cockpit.

The Spanish are now retired from the 2003 competition snd surely will be back to build on this campaign. I am impressed with how much this team has grown in the last 5 months. My compliments to them!

Now we will see a rematch of the 1992 Louis Vuitton finals, Team New Zealand vs. Italy. This Italian team looks strong to me. Certainly stronger than Il Moro looked prior to the finals in 1992. The first race will be very interesting and we will all be trying to draw conclusions from that. In reality, these series can be very long and changes of fortune can happen.

Both teams will be trying a few things this week and getting the boats set up in what they think is their best mode to confront their rival and relative to the weather forecast. A bit of rest will be necessary too.

So back to work for a week for all the spectators. See you on June 1.